China, Indonesia, India and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative

China’s President Xi Jinping announced last November that China will promote Asia’s connectivity by creating a $40 billion USD fund for the 21^st Century Maritime Silk Road. This is part of the now called Chinese Dream, which according to President Xi Jinping consists on “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. [1] And according to SCMP, the “New Silk Road Economic Belt” and the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” will build roads, ports, airports and railways across Central and South Asia”. [2]

President Xi Jinping was also quoted saying that “the Silk Road Fund will be open and welcome investors from Asia and beyond to actively take part in the project”. [3] It is therefore evident that this investment is not only a business opportunity for many regional and global companies, but also a political opportunity of regional cooperation for the countries of Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, East Africa and Middle East. This is a project that might have a positive global impact and could even re-launch the much needed regional cooperation with strategic partnerships in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.

 

Picture 1 - Current and Xi Jinping's routes [2]

The main challenges and opportunities of the “21^st Century Maritime Silk Road” initiative are considerably dependent on how other key regional players – such as Indonesia and India – will engage with or influence the Chinese plan.

Let’s start by Indonesia. Indonesia has a new leader, President Joko Widodo, who is a pro-business reformer with an ambitious modernization plan for the country, projecting Indonesia as a “maritime axis” between the Pacific and the Indian oceans. Last Thursday, the 5^th of March 2015, I was privileged to meet in Brussels the Indonesian Deputy Minister of the Coordinating Ministry of Maritime Affairs, Mr Arif Havas Oegroseno. As he said, the 5 pillars of Indonesia’s new maritime strategy are:

- Maritime Culture

- Maritime Economy

- Maritime Connectivity

- Maritime Security

- Maritime Diplomacy

According to Mr Oegroseno, next 4 years Indonesia will invest $57 billion USD in upgrading 24 harbors and 5 deep sea ports. Additionally, Indonesia will invest $70 billion USD in building 7 new yacht and cruise harbors and 9 new airports. This fundraising is currently being done and in Europe the main investors are from Denmark, France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands and Germany. All of these goals seem to work well for the Chinese Maritime Silk Road initiative. Moreover, general perception is that China and Indonesia have very close relations and Indonesia’s leadership in the Indian-Ocean Rim Association (IORA) next 2 years could play favorably for China’s projects in the Indian Ocean. Indonesia could also be helpful in softening relations between China and other ASEAN countries as Vietnam and the Philippines, with which there are some sovereignty disputes over islands and reefs in the South China Sea. The Silk Road Fund has definitely a big potential to be a key diplomatic and economic integration tool from which China and ASEAN countries can benefit.

Historically Indonesia has had an important role in Chinese exports to places like, for instance, Oman. Indonesia’s efforts to restore its infrastructures are crucial for the country to maintain that status of “maritime axis” between the Pacific and Indian oceans. Economic projections are also positive for the country. Indonesia is currently the 16^th biggest economy in the world. As we can see below, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) projects that Indonesia will be the 11^th biggest economy by 2030 and the 8^th biggest economy by 2050. While China will have a stable status quo as leader, India will dispute the 2^nd place with the United States. [4]

 

Table 1 - Actual and projected top 20 economies ranked based on GDP in PPP terms [4]

Regarding South Asia, the situation is not simple. We must bear in mind India’s crucial role in it. China has a strong alliance with Pakistan, as we can see by emblematic Chinese sponsored infrastructures such as the Karakoram highway and the Gwadar deep-sea port. Besides that, China has a close relation with the current government of the Maldives [5] and has major investments in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. This is why the String of Pearls Theory is popular not only in India but also within international analysts. According to this theory, China would have as strategy the encirclement towards India, its economy and military, in order to dominate the Indian Ocean. In fact, the “21^st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative” has been seen by the Indian media as a Chinese rebranding of its String of Pearls. [6]

With the election of Prime-Minister Narendra Modi in India last year, many things have been changing India as well as in South Asia. With programmes like “Make in India” [7] or by reducing bureaucracy, the new Indian government has shown that pro-business policies are their main priority. Also in neighbor countries like Sri Lanka things are changing. Sri Lanka’s previous President Mahinda Rajapaksa developed in his 10 years consulate a very close relation with China, endorsing China’s Maritime Silk Road initiative and welcoming Chinese investment in the country’s infrastructures, such as in the ports of Colombo, Tricomalee and others. [8] But in January 2015, against all odds, President Rajapaksa lost the elections and the new President Maithripala Sirisena took office. President Sirisena is much closer to India than its predecessor was and he promised to establish “equal relations” between China, India, Pakistan and Japan. [9] In Sri Lanka, as in Bangladesh and also in inland countries as Nepal and Bhutan, China must have India’s role in consideration for its Maritime Silk Road project. China has some diplomatic challenges in these cases, since cooperation and even coordination with India will probably be much more effective for business than competition or confrontation. Prime-Minister Modi is visiting its neighbor countries in South Asia in a second round since his election last year. This tells us that India will not open hand of his leading role in the region.

Other countries like Japan, Australia or New Zealand could be also interested in the new infrastructures and opportunities generated by the “21^st Century Maritime Silk Road” initiative. Arguably, the ongoing negotiations of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) can somehow affect the flow of investment, commerce and partnerships related to the Maritime Silk Road. However, for the time being, this threat is not meaningful for two main reasons: first, the negotiations completion will take time; and second, it will probably result in a complementary market rather than in damaging competition.

 

Picture 2 - CSCL Globe, the biggest cargo ship in the world, with capacity for 19100 TEU containers

In Europe the “21^st Century Maritime Silk Road” initiative is being received with great expectations. Just this week the Chinese cargo ship passed by the Port of Zeebrugge in Belgium, increasing people’s interest on the issue. [10] Illustrating this, the Port of Zeebrugge has offices in Shanghai and the King of Belgium will visit China by June 2015.

Finally, this week Heritage Foundation and New Direction Foundation presented in Brussels [11] the 2015 Index of Economic Freedom [12]. According to this index, Hong Kong maintained the status as the world’s freest economy for the 21^st consecutive year. Singapore ranks 2^nd in this index that considers as indicators the rule of law, government size, regulatory efficiency and open markets. As Goldman Sachs recognizes, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect launching in the 17^th of November 2014 “allows mainland Chinese investors to purchase select Hong Kong and Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, and lets foreigners buy Chinese A shares listed in Shanghai in a less restrictive manner than has previously been the case.” [13] Such policies and the Maritime Silk Road investments will allow Hong Kong and Singapore to reinforce their status as the main business centers of Southeast Asia.

António M.C. Vieira da Cruz

Brussels, the 7^th of March 2015

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Sources:

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/05/opinion/global/xi-jinpings-chinese-dream.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1

[2] http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1657213/road-chinas-past-future

[3] http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/08/us-china-diplomacy-idUSKBN0IS0BQ20141108

[4] http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf

[5] http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1593453/maldives-supports-chinas-plan-maritime-silk-road

[6] http://thediplomat.com/2014/02/the-maritime-silk-road-vs-the-string-of-pearls/

[7] http://www.makeinindia.com/

[8] http://www.maritimesun.com/news/sri-lanka-supports-chinas-initiative-of-a-21st-century-maritime-silk-route

[9] http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/01/09/a-snag-in-chinas-string-of-pearls-strategy/

[10] http://www.marinelink.com/news/zeebrugge-globe-calls386567.aspx

[11] http://newdirectionfoundation.org/content/how-free-are-european-economies-brussels-march-4th-2015

[12] http://www.heritage.org/index/

[13] http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/trends-in-our-business/stock-connect/

grandes fotografias políticas (V)

Anteontem, Narendra Modi começou uma campanha para modernizar o sistema sanitário na Índia. Foi a varrer as ruas de Nova Deli que o Primeiro-Ministro passou a mensagem.

Primeiro-Ministro Modi a limpar as ruas da capital Indiana

Depois de ter lançado a campanha Make in India, convidando Indianos e Estrangeiros a investir na Índia, Narendra Modi lança agora a campanha My Clean India com uma vassoura nas mãos. A Índia enfrenta assim a poluição urbana e os conhecidos atrasos sanitários, desagradáveis pelo cheiro mas sobretudo graves pela transmissão de doenças. Um relatório das Nações Unidas em Maio indicava que cerca de metade dos Indianos defeca na rua, levando à propagação de doenças como a cólera, diarreia, disenteria, hepatite A e tifóide.

Pegar na vassoura e dar o exemplo foi sem dúvida a melhor forma de passar a mensagem e inspirar outros a fazer o mesmo.

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Bangladesh condemns extremists while others keep coming to South Asia

International Crimes Tribunal of Dhaka

Yesterday, one of the worse criminals of the XXI century was condemned to life imprisonment. His name is Delwar Hossain Sayedee, he is 74 years old and he was one of the leaders of the extremist party Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh. During the Liberation War of Bangladesh in 1971, he committed brutal crimes against humanity. Being now accused of at least 20 crimes, the case went to Supreme Court and there he was proven guilty of:

•     torture a leader of the Awami League, Mr Nurul Islam, and arson attack on his house;
•     killing one and torching house in the village of Chitholia;
•     killing one and torching 25 houses in the village of Umedpur;
•     abduction and rape of 3 sisters of Parerhat Bazar;
•     forcing 100 to 150 Hindus to convert to Islam in Parerhat and other villages.

Delwar Hossain Sayedee, a Razakar

Besides that, he was accused of many other crimes, as killing more 65 people, raping countless Hindu girls (many in Pakistani army camps), and torching civil houses in at least 17 other villages. Those charges lacked evidences for the judges. Mr Sayedee was known as “Delu Razakar”. Razakars, as Al-Badr’s and Al-Shams were paramilitary militias organized by the Pakistan Army to fight the freedom fighters in Bangladesh in 1971. These paramilitary forces, together with Pakistan Army, committed one of the biggest genocides of history, killing 3 million people (specially Hindus, other religious minorities, moderate Mulsims, Awami League party supporters and country intellectuals), provoking an exodus of 10 million refugees and the displacement of 30 million people million, and raping more than 200 thousand Bangladeshi women, from whom thousands of war babies were born. Genocidal mass rape was part of the military strategy and must be seen in this context: as General Tikka Khan (also known as the “Butcher of Bengal”) openly said "I will reduce this majority to a minority".

Mr Sayedee is not the first person to be condemned for crimes against humanity, for example Mr Abdul Quader Molla faced death sentence and was hanged to death on the 12^th of December 2013. Next judicial case to be solved must be Azharul Islam’s, who was an Al-Badr commander and is charged “with two acts of genocide that left more than 1,200 people dead. The 61-year-old Jamaat assistant secretary general was also charged with torture, looting, arson, abduction, rape, mass killing and conspiracy to kill unarmed civilians in Rangpur”, reports the Daily Star.

Beautiful poster from 1971, saying that Hindus,
Christians, Buddhists and Muslims, all are Bengali

But now it is fair to ask: if those crimes were committed in 1971, why they are being judged only now? The problem was that during many years the Jamaat-e-Islami party was influential enough to prevent his criminal members to be judged. Only in 2009 – 38 years after the liberation war – the International Crimes Tribunal was set up, being supported by the Awami League government and large sectors of Bangladeshi society, many of them young people who were born after 1971, who gathered in huge numbers in the Shahbag area in Dhaka calling for justice. The Shahbag Movement was one of the biggest protests in History of moderate Muslims in a country with a Muslim majority. Although all the political parties tried to take credits for these manifestations, it is now clearer that the Shahbag Movement was spontaneously born within the civil society, in a non-partisan way.

However, we must not believe that Jamaat-e-Islami and other extremist groups are weak in Bangladesh. On the contrary, these parties are richer than others, being very well financed from abroad with donors in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar… Also, in the case of Jamaat, they are self-financed through key businesses they control in Bangladesh, such as banks, hospitals, universities, madrasas, charities and others. In fact, Jamaat-e-Islami called for hartal (strike) yesterday and Sunday, in order to protest the condemnation of Mr Sayedee. Yesterday, some clashes between Islami Chhatra Shibir (Jamaat-e-Islami’s youth political wing) and the police were registered.

 

Al-Zawahiri announced in September 2014 a new Al-Qaeda chapter in South Asia

Al-Qaeda in South Asia

Justice is being made and Bangladesh is putting an end to impunity, which was undermining rule of law. This is good news. We just have to hope that when other party comes to power no amnesty must be given to such criminals. But while Bangladesh is putting its terrorists into jail, others are coming to South Asia. Al-Qaeda’s leader, Mr Al-Zawahiri, announced this month that Al-Qaeda is opening a new chapter in South Asia. Besides Al-Qaeda’s support of the Taliban in Afghanistan, experts admit that India will be the first priority for this terrorist network and Myanmar and Bangladesh are probably the following targets.

India’s Prime-Minister Mr Narendra Modi, told CNN today that Al-Qaeda will fail in India. He said “If anyone thinks Indian Muslims will dance to their tune, they are delusional. Indian Muslims will not want anything bad for India”. As Indian elections were won by the Hindu-Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), many political analysts feared that discrimination laws and practices would flourish in the country, marginalizing minorities and stablishing 1^st and 2^nd class citizens. But those fears were not materialized so far and we must give this government the benefit of the doubt and Mr Modi first steps in government seamed good. For example, after visiting neighbouring countries, Mr Modi chose Japan as the first country to visit, where he signed with Japan’s Prime Minister Mr Shinzo Abe the Tokyo Declaration for India, to foster Indo-Japanese cooperation in domains as important as Defence, Maritime Security, Cyber Security, Economic and Technologic Partnership.

 

Tokio: Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi with Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan

Even if Indian Muslims are a minority (around 14,6%), India is also the 3^rd country in the world with more Muslims (177 million), next to Indonesia (204 million) and Pakistan (178 million). Most of the Muslims in India are known as being quite moderate. But one of the most significant clashes between Muslims and Hindus happened during the tragic 2002 Gujarat riots, when Mr Modi was Gujarat’s Chief Minister. The challenge is simple in theory and hard but possible in practice. If Muslims in India feel they are being unfairly treated, they may become easy targets for jihadi recruiters. But if Mr Modi choses the right words and his government choses the right actions to integrate Muslim communities in India, he will succeed.

Most of Indian Muslims are proud Indian, they want democracy and a pacific secular State. We should resist the prejudice of seeing in each Muslim a potential terrorist. That is simply not fair. But we must also recognize evidences, and reality is that Al-Qaeda terrorists are coming to fight and bomb in South Asia. Al-Qaeda, as ISIS and other Islamic terrorist associations, uses a misinterpretation of Islam for political purposes. South Asian politicians understand that their best allies against Islamic terrorist groups are moderate Muslims themselves. They are the ones who ultimately will expose this fraud and reject this foreign, far-away, backwards ideology of fear. And India concretely has a long experience of both defending against terrorist groups as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and other ISI (Pakistan Secret Services) supported groups, as well of preventing communist attacks by the Naxalite guerrilla groups. With Al-Qaeda opening a new chapter in South Asia, the free world should support India in its fight against terrorism.

 

Dhaka: Shahbag protests in 2013, supporting the condemnation of 1971 war criminals

To sum up

While extremists are finally being put in jail in Bangladesh, others are coming to South Asia. Terrorism never sleeps and this is our wake-up call: those who love freedom and liberty should be vigilant and don’t let these extremists gain ground anywhere.