notas sobre a campanha na Escócia

Amanhã, os Escoceses vão poder decidir sobre a sua independência ou permanência no Reino Unido. Os Ingleses, que tem uma tradição democrática muito mais enraízada do que por exemplo os Espanhóis (não se lhes fale dum referendo semelhante para Catalães ou Bascos), assim o permitiram. Queriam arrumar o assunto e dá-lo por encerrado para os próximos 300 anos. Mas, ao invés de termos uma campanha descansada para os unionistas - como Londres erradamente previa no início -, vemos em vez disso as sondagens disputadas taco a taco.

Bandeira Escocesa com a cruz de Santo André, padroeiro da Escócia

O que é que aconteceu de especial para que as intenções de voto fossem afunilando tanto nas últimas semanas? A principal razão é que os independentistas liderados pelo First Minister Escocês Alex Salmond (do Scottish National Party) fizeram uma excelente campanha, sem espinhas nem erros comprometedores, apelando ao coração dos Escoceses, ao destino da sua Nação, ao sentimento identitário e de pertença. Por parte dos unionistas, a campanha tem sido desastrosa: em vez de apelarem ao coração, apelaram a razões do bolso e da carteira; em vez de se orgulharem do Reino Unido que têm, tentaram induzir medo aos eleitores, enumerando as consequências negativas de a Escócia sair da União. Foi uma campanha atípica, onde os que querem sair fizeram uma campanha de tom positivo, e os que querem ficar fizeram-na pela negativa.

Os unionistas e os Ingleses que os apoiam começaram a campanha a invocar o suposto descalabro económico dos Escoceses caso saiam da União. Se escolhessem sair, não poderiam usar a mesma moeda, as pessoas iriam tirar o seu dinheiro da Escócia, os bancos iriam fechar, a bolsa iria cair a pique, os negócios iriam acabar e o desemprego iria subir. Depois, como viram que este discurso não colava, passaram ao Plano B: prometer mais autonomia aos Escoceses caso aceitassem ficar, mais serviços sociais, maior investimento público, melhores condições fiscais. Vendo isto, os independentistas resumiram a campanha dos unionistas de forma muito sucinta e inteligente: «Primeiro quiseram meter-nos medo, agora querem-nos subornar. A única forma de termos o nosso destino nas nossas mãos é votar sim à independência».

"This is a panicky measure made because the Yes side is winning. They’re trying to bribe us, but it won’t work as they have no credibility left." Alex Salmond, First Minister Escocês

Há ainda mais um factor a ter em conta, que se chama União Europeia. David Cameron tentou evitar a nomeação do super-federalista Jean-Claude Juncker para sucessor de Durão Barroso na Presidência da Comissão Europeia. O episódio não foi agradável, com acusações de parte a parte, mas não evitou a nomeação do Luxemburguês para o cargo. Juncker, que não é de se ficar, quis aplicar uma pequena vingança a Cameron, dando um empurrão à causa independentista na Escócia. Disse Juncker que a Escócia seria bem-vinda na União Europeia caso se separassem do Reino Unido. Entendendo que tais declarações poderiam abrir um precedente para a Catalunha, Madrid não gostou. De qualquer forma, vimos uma vez mais a repulsiva ingerência de Bruxelas nos assuntos internos de um Estado-Membro da UE.

"Let no-one fool you that 'Yes' is a positive vision. It's about dividing people, closing doors, making foreigners of our friends and family." David Cameron, Prime Minister do Reino Unido, esta Segunda-feira em Aberdeen.

Desde os anos 90 que os jornais, comentadores e políticos aproveitam o mantra da campanha de Bill Clinton em 1992 que dizia «é a economia, estúpido!» Confesso que não gosto disto por duas grandes razões: primeiro porque usa uma linguagem feia e agressiva; e depois porque desde então a política practicamente desapareceu, foi capturada pela economia e pelas financas, e deixou de ter margem de manobra para servir o Bem Comum. Obviamente que qualquer política responsável não gasta mais do que aquilo que tem e precisa de contas certas, nem eu sugeriria outra coisa… mas esta obessessão com o dinheiro acabou por desvirtuar a política, por fazer mal à própria economia, até aos bancos… e às pessoas em geral. O resultado está à vista.

Voltando ao Reino Unido, só nas últimas duas semanas é que os líderes dos 3 maiores partidos (Conservadores, Trabalhistas e Liberais) decidiram fazer campanha com mais afinco, por vezes juntos, e implorando aos Escoceses que fiquem na União. Parece que estas acções estancaram a subida dos independentistas nas intenções de voto, mas pode ter sido tarde demais para reverter a situação. Ganhe quem ganhar, as sondagens indicam que a diferença será mínima.

  

Árvore genealógica da Família Duck, pelo grande Don Rosa

Por isso, não deixa de ser curioso, até irónico, que sejam os Escoceses a mostrarem-nos que há coisas mais importantes que o dinheiro, logo eles que tinham a fama de serem tão somíticos. Até o Tio Patinhas obedecia ao esteriótipo, ele que era de linhagem Escocesa, da família McDuck ou, à Portuguesa, McPato. O bem-estar material das pessoas é um objectivo político importante, mas não é tudo na politica. Também o Reino do Butão já se apercebeu disso, desvalorizou o PIB e inaugurou um novo instrumento político: a felicidade interna bruta, que combina outros elementos para além dos económicos. Sobre o argumento económico nesta campanha, escreveu esta semana com humor o publicitário Rory Sutherland, que na revista Spectator dizia:

"Imagine you proposed divorcing your husband, and he responded by compiling a spreadsheet listing the additional costs of maintaining two households and implored you to stick together to save on the household bills. The thought is hideous. Any appeal to equate loyalty with economic self-interest is instinctively repellent to normal people. The argument that two countries should stay together solely for financial reasons may be economically sound but it is psychologically tone deaf. Allowing money to affect you allegiance never goes down well with the punters, as Judas and Ephialtes both discovered."

Não estou a torcer por nenhum dos lados, isto é mais sério do que um jogo de futebol e temos de nos adaptar às situações. Que ganhem aqueles que tiverem de ganhar. Nao tenho preferências porque simpatizo com Escoceses e Ingleses, e entendo os pontos de vista duns e doutros. Mas seja qual for o resultado, a partir de dia 18 teremos uma Grã-Bretanha muito diferente da de hoje. Entretanto, em Espanha, a chaleira já apita com a pressão para um referendo na Catalunha.

olhando para o Butão e outros assuntos da Ásia do Sul

Editorial que escrevi no oitavo número da revista Think South Asia:

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The King of Bhutan - Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck

It is now time for us to look at Bhutan. Bhutan is a mountainous country comparable to the size of Switzerland, but with around 730 thousand inhabitants and landlocked between India and Tibet, which as we know is ruled by the Chinese. On the date of this edition we are between 2 rounds of parliamentary elections in Bhutan, being a special moment to analyse this fascinating country. Also another issue for which Bhutan is well known is the Gross National Happiness index (GNH), and we are thinking about it as well.

In this issue of Think South Asia magazine we have very prestigious contributions indeed. First of all, a detailed country profile of Bhutan done by the South Asia Democratic Forum fellow Mr Marian Gallenkamp, who is a knowledgeable expert on this country. Dr Siegfried O. Wolf from the University of Heidelberg dedicates his usual column to an analysis of the Bhutanese elections. The EU Delegate of The Family Watch, Mr Antoine Mellado, writes about development and the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan and its parameters. Then, 3 promising and talented ladies from Bangladesh honour us with their inputs: Ms Sheikh Nishat Nazmi is a Social Psychology Counsellor and brings to us a very interesting picture of the Families in South Asia in general, Bangladesh in particular; Mst Sabikun Naher from the University of Dhaka writes about the Bangladesh-Bhutan commercial relations and comparative advantages of both countries; and last but not least, Ms Janina Islam Abir also from the University of Dhaka tell us about the Shahbag Movement, making a very comprehensive and deep analysis of this historical phenomena occurring nowadays in Bangladesh, which we should know better and follow closely.

BNG Ambassador - Ismat Jahan

Now I am privileged to present: 2 interviews, 2 Ambassadors, 2 good friends of South Asia: Her Excellency Mrs Ismat Jahan from Bangladesh, and His Excellency Mr Jan Deboutte from Belgium. Both perspectives – South Asian and European – should be appreciated attentively, so that no drop of wisdom escapes from our readings. Without any previous agreement, both ambassadors showed to be fantastic builders of cultural bridges: while Mr Ambassador Deboutte finds a link between the Bhutanese Gross National Happiness and the Greek classical philosophy, Mrs Ambassador Jahan quotes the first non European Nobel Prize of Literature winner, the Bengali Rabindranath Tagore (1913), proving that his poetry and art could be an inspiration to South Asians, Europeans and everybody in this planet.

Regarding the peace prospects in Kashmir, we have an attention call article from the Executive Director of South Asia Democratic Forum. Mr Paulo Casaca writes about the murder of Mr Arif Shahid, one of the most important figures of Pakistan’s Kashmiri independence movement, and its worrying consequences to the peace in Kashmir.

On the 14^th of May there were also elections in Pakistan, where the people expressed the will to have Mr Nawaz Sharif as Prime Minister for the 3^rd time in the country’s History. The South Asia Institute of the University of Heidelberg and the South Asia Democratic Forum organised a conference to discuss these elections and in the European Parliament of Brussels. This event resulted in a high-level briefing done by a prestigious set of experts to European policy-makers. You can check their conclusions in the end of the magazine. From the Think South Asia editorial side, I would like to wish to President Sharif all the success, hoping that peace, stability and better living conditions can be achieved in Pakistan with respect to Human Rights and the Rule of Law.

From Bangladesh we received sad news on the last 24^th of April, when the Rana Plaza complex collapsed provoking the death of 1129 people. This makes us ask: In a country where the perpetrators of the 1971 genocide (which killed more than 3 million people) were not brought to justice and several other public crimes occurred, like the assassination of President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, how can we expect that people have care while planning a building? This is why it was important to welcome in Brussels the Bangladeshi Minister of Foreign Affairs, Doctor Dipu Moni. Mrs Moni said that in Bangladesh “the culture of impunity is ending” and the government will do its best to ensure labour safety and rights in the country. We must applaud her courageous statement and support the Bangladeshi authorities in the reinforcement of security and the rule of law.

After some Chinese troops crossed the line of control in Ladakh (Kashmir) in April, I was surprised to see the European Parliament discussing on the 23^rd of May the February execution of Mohammad Afzal Guru in Delhi. As I said the Think South Asia 6^th edition in February, I personally am against death penalty, but this does not mean supporting impunity. Mr Guru was proven to be associated with the terrorist groups Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, and participated in the 2001 attack against the Indian Parliament, killing 7 people and injuring 15. Of course the European Parliament could make the case of banning death penalty in the world... but this case of Mr Guru is far from being the best flag to pick, not to say that it probably sends a wrong message to the international community, as if the EU is supporting impunity for terrorists. I think this is not the case, or at least it shouldn’t.

Two days after this debate in Strasbourg, on the Saturday the 25^th of May another terrorist attack happened in the State of Chhattisgarh in India, this time organised by the Naxalite-Maoists. The attackers killed 27 people, amongst them some senior political leaders mainly from the Indian National Congress party. The Naxalite-Maoist insurgency killed already approximately 12 thousand people since its start in 1980 and the Indian police believes it has ties with the above mentioned Lashkar-e-Taiba, as well as with the ISI (intelligence agency also from Pakistan), and their training camps are mainly located in Pakistan, China and Burma.

Finally some good news from Afghanistan. As you can see in the latest document of Reporters Without Frontiers, no journalists were killed in 2012 and arrests of media workers declined. Nevertheless, violence against journalists did not disappear completely. Also, since NATO will withdraw most of the troops from Afghanistan next year and Taliban are expected to return to the country, there are legitimate doubts if this betterment of conditions for the media in Afghanistan is not precarious.

The Taktshang Monastery, in Bhutan

Bhutan also gives us positive news. Bhutan ranks 1^st among the South Asian countries for freedom of the press, and the 82^nd in the World Press Freedom Index. More concerns should be raised to the situation in the Maldives and in Sri Lanka. Although still preserving an orange colour on the map, the Maldives fell 30 positions in the index due to violence and threats against journalists after the coup d’état in March 2012. Regarding Sri Lanka, it still is the last one of South Asia on the list, ranking number 162^nd in the world, three positions below Pakistan (159^th).

South Asia as a whole got worse for journalists in 2012, and something should be done about this. However these are sad news, we should put them in perspective. South Asian countries scored considerably better than its neighbour countries:

• Tajikistan and Burma appear in a red colour with a “difficult situation” for journalists
• Uzbekistan, China, Iran and Turkmenistan in black with a “very serious situation”

To sum up, reasons are not scarce to give a careful look to this edition of the Think South Asia magazine, because in the next editions there will be some changes and surprises. Meanwhile, any articles for submission, comments or critics are very much welcome in: antonio@sadf.eu

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Para fazer o download da revista Think South Asia 08: http://sadf.eu/home/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/thinksouthasia08.pdf

os méritos da cooperação - caso da Ásia do Sul

Em baixo publico o artigo que escrevi no terceiro número da revista Think South Asia (9 de Outubro), que edito com o apoio do South Asia Democratic Forum. Principais países em destaque: Maldivas, Bangladesh e Sri Lanka. Mas também há notícias do resto da Ásia do Sul: Índia, Paquistão, Nepal, Butão e Afeganistão. E, ainda, a China e o Myanmar, a antiga Birmânia.

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In this edition of Think South Asia you will find plenty of details on what we are proud to present as the biggest and most important conference ever held on the topic of South Asia in Brussels, under the title, “The Merits of Regional Cooperation: The Case of South Asia” (part II). This important event will take place next 11th of October in the Hotel Sofitel Brussels at Place Jourdan, marking the legislative year of the European Institutions. This will present an amazing opportunity to discuss - with worldwide academic and political experts - and understand some of the most important issues in South Asia, such as Peace and Stability, Economic Cooperation, and Development.

 

Perhaps one of the main expectations of this conference will be the presentation of a study on Education in Bangladesh conducted by Professor N. M. Sajjadul Hoque, from the University of Chittagong. His study is titled, “Reviewing the Education Policy of Bangladesh” and he tries to answer the question, “Is the Present Education Policy Adequate for Countering Terrorism and Religious and Ethnic Intolerance?”. As per his findings, nine out of ten people in Bangladesh believe that Education is an important means to face the challenges of terrorism and religious and ethnic intolerance in Bangladesh, and the overwhelming majority (85%) feel that it is important to incorporate these issues in the New Education Policy of Bangladesh, as well as the educational curriculum and text books/syllabuses “as a matter of priority”. In the end, Professor Hoque outlines some important recommendations for Bangladeshi civil society, the Bangladeshi Government, the International Community in general and the European Union in particular.

 

Yet concerning Bangladesh, we must condemn vehemently the burning of at 10 Buddhist temples and around 2,100 homes last 29th and 30th of September by extremists in Southern Bangladesh. These demonstrations are a reaction to an allegedly insulting image of the Quran posted on Facebook and could be explained when we see the elections coming. In the same vein, we saw also on the 21st of September the burning of a Christian Church in Mardan, Pakistan, by a large mob of extremist Muslims. This happened as a response to the now infamous anti-Islam movie, even if the Christians of Mardan have nothing to do with this film. We must be worried about this phenomena of manipulating mobs to practice violent acts against innocent people who, because of their religion, are treated as scapegoats.

 

As a reflex of this reality, the Blasphemy Law of Pakistan is still in vigour and there are yet no signs of its end: Rimsha Masih, a Christian girl of 11 years old with Down's Syndrome is being held in prison since the 11th of August 2012, accused of burning pages from a booklet used to teach Arabic and the Quran. Under the Pakistan Penal Code, she could receive life in prison. Rimsha joins Asia Bibi and many others that are in prison because of this unjust law, and most of the convicted are Muslim.

 

Some intriguing news is also coming in from the Maldives, where after the coup d’état of March 2012 some turbulent riots took place, culminating in the most recent happenings: on the 2nd of October the Member of Parliament and well-known member of the opposition Mr Afrasheem Ali was stabbed to death near his house; on the 8th of October the former President Mohamed Nasheed was detained and arrested. In addition, four months before the coup d’état, China opened a new embassy in the Maldives. Perhaps it is just a coincidence, perhaps not. It is publicly known that China is carrying out major infrastructure projects in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Several authors say this is part of a Chinese strategy to encircle India and influence its neighbours. But back to the Maldives, although the current government and some reports don’t recognise there was really a coup d’état, what else can we conclude from these occurrences? Nevertheless, if we want to understand what is going on in these islands, there is nothing better than reading Djan Sauerborn’s country profile about the Maldives in this number of Think South Asia.

 

Very shortly, we will follow carefully the developments of the Free Trade Agreement negotiations between India and the European Union, where we can see the most recent point of tension is the retail market. The entrance of big European retail companies into the Indian market could lower retail prices in India even more but, on the other hand, traditional commerce and small shops would be forced to close in a medium/long run. It will be very interesting to see what develops.

 

Back to Brussels, the former Prime Minister of Nepal, Mr Puspa Kamal Dahal, known as “Prachanda”, will visit the European Parliament in Brussels next 15th of October. Former guerrilla leader and chairman of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), Prachanda was invited by MEPs Nirj Deva and Jean Lambert. Mrs Jean Lambert is the Chair of the Delegation for relations with the countries of South Asia within the European Parliament and honours us with an interview in this edition, where she speaks of the reconciliation process with the Tamils in Sri Lanka.

 

In the next edition of Think South Asia, we will report the main conclusions of our conference, “The Merits of Regional Cooperation: The Case of South Asia”. If you do not want to wait so long and would instead like to attend, please register and take one of the last seats available by sending us an email to events@sadf.eu or by consulting our website at www.sadf.eu.

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Para fazer o download da revista Think South Asia 03: http://sadf.eu/docs/thinksouthasia03.pdf